Customer churn prediction using improved one-class support vector machine

Authors:
Yu Zhao;Bing Li;Xiu Li;Wenhuang Liu;Shouju Ren
Affiliations:
Cims Research Center, Automation Department, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;Cims Research Center, Automation Department, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;Cims Research Center, Automation Department, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;Cims Research Center, Automation Department, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;Cims Research Center, Automation Department, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Venue:
ADMA'05 Proceedings of the First international conference on Advanced Data Mining and Applications
Year:
2005

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Abstract

Customer Churn Prediction is an increasingly pressing issue in today's ever-competitive commercial arena. Although there are several researches in churn prediction, but the accuracy rate, which is very important to business, is not high enough. Recently, Support Vector Machines (SVMs), based on statistical learning theory, are gaining applications in the areas of data mining, machine learning, computer vision and pattern recognition because of high accuracy and good generalization capability. But there has no report about using SVM to Customer Churn Prediction. According to churn data set characteristic, the number of negative examples is very small, we introduce an improved one-class SVM. And we have tested our method on the wireless industry customer churn data set. Our method has been shown to perform very well compared with other traditional methods, ANN, Decision Tree, and Naïve Bays.