Forecasting 3G mobile subscription in China: A study based on stochastic frontier analysis and a Bass diffusion model

Authors:
Jinyang Lim;Changi Nam;Seongcheol Kim;Hongjai Rhee;Euehun Lee;Hongkyu Lee
Affiliations:
Department of Management Science, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701, Republic of Korea;Department of Management Science, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701, Republic of Korea;School of Media and Communication, Korea University, Korea, 145, Anam-dong, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 136-701, Republic of Korea;College of Business Administration, Ajou University, Woncheon-dong, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon 443-749, Republic of Korea;Department of Management Science, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701, Republic of Korea;Department of Management Science, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701, Republic of Korea
Venue:
Telecommunications Policy
Year:
2012

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Abstract

This paper forecasts 3G mobile subscription in mainland China while incorporating regional disparity. First, using stochastic frontier analysis, this paper tries to measure the relative market potential of 2G mobile service in 31 Chinese provinces. Second, this paper estimates diffusion parameters, including innovation coefficient, imitation coefficient and potential market size, of 31 provinces from 2G data. Then, this paper forecasts 3G mobile subscription using the original Bass model. In particular, this paper uses the market potential of each province in a modified Bass model in order to estimate the maximum level of 3G subscription. Finally, the paper presents meaningful implications for policy makers and mobile network operators in China.