Defining and Measuring the Productivity of Programming Languages
International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications
Information markets vs. opinion pools: an empirical comparison
Proceedings of the 6th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
On the Collective Nature of Human Intelligence
Adaptive Behavior - Animals, Animats, Software Agents, Robots, Adaptive Systems
Prediction Markets as institutional forecasting support systems
Decision Support Systems
Designing bidding strategies in sequential auctions for risk averse agents
Multiagent and Grid Systems - Advances in Agent-mediated Automated Negotiations
Towards a research agenda for enterprise crowdsourcing
ISoLA'10 Proceedings of the 4th international conference on Leveraging applications of formal methods, verification, and validation - Volume Part I
SBP'12 Proceedings of the 5th international conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction
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We present a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. By determining their risk attitudes and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, we are able to assess the probability of the future outcome of an uncertain event and compare it to both the objective probability of its occurrence and the performance of the market as a whole. Experiments show that this nonlinear aggregation mechanism vastly outperforms both the imperfect market and the best of the participants. We then extend the mechanism to prove robust in the presence of public information.