Technology roles and paths of influence in an ecosystem model of technology evolution
Information Technology and Management
Optimal Entry Timing in Markets with Social Influence
Management Science
Modified diffusion model with multiple products using a hybrid GA approach
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
A Generalized Norton--Bass Model for Multigeneration Diffusion
Management Science
Journal of Global Information Management
A Population-Growth Model for Multiple Generations of Technology Products
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
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Previous studies dealing with product growth have dealt only with substitution effects among successive generations of one product category and not with complementarity and competition provided by related product categories.Based on a broadened concept of the competitive information technology (IT) market, we develop a dynamic market growth model that is able to incorporateboth interproduct categoryand technological substitution effects simultaneously. The market potential for each category or generation is treated as a variable rather than a constant parameter, which is typical of recently growing IT sectors such as wireless telecommunications. The model is calibrated, its plausibility discussed, and its face and predictive validity assessed using data on wireless telecommunications services from two Asian markets.Results show that the market potential (and sales growth) of one category or generation is significantly affected by others and by the overall structure of a geographic market. The model is shown to make relatively good predictions even when the data from recently introduced categories/generations are limited.