Modified diffusion model with multiple products using a hybrid GA approach

Authors:
Fu-Kwun Wang;Ku-Kuang Chang
Affiliations:
Department of Industrial Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, No. 43, Keelung Rd., Sec. 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan;Department of Industrial Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, No. 43, Keelung Rd., Sec. 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2009

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Abstract

As technology advances, the speed in which new products are developed also increases. Due to such increases, product forecasting has become much more vital for a company. The Bass diffusion model is a demand-forecast model that explores the phases of a product's life cycle that have been successful in the diffusion of forecasting innovation in new products. Recognizing the need for an efficient parameter estimation method for multi-product forecasting, we have conducted research using the hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA). The research conducted will provide an alternate approach to explore the forecasting capability of the diffusion models without having as many limitations as the original method. We used both published data and LCD-monitor global sales data to test and verify our method. Results show that the proposed model using a hybrid GA approach can improve the forecasting efficiency.