Probabilistic Automated Bidding in Multiple Auctions

Authors:
Marlon Dumas;Lachlan Aldred;Guido Governatori;Arthur H. M. Ter Hofstede
Affiliations:
Centre for IT Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane QLD 4001, Australia m.dumas@qut.edu.au;Centre for IT Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane QLD 4001, Australia l.aldred@qut.edu.au;School of ITEE, The University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4072, Australia guido@itee.uq.edu.au;Centre for IT Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane QLD 4001, Australia a.terhofstede@qut.edu.au
Venue:
Electronic Commerce Research
Year:
2005

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Abstract

This paper presents an approach to develop bidding agents that participate in multiple auctions with the goal of obtaining an item with a given probability. The approach consists of a prediction method and a planning algorithm. The prediction method exploits the history of past auctions to compute probability functions capturing the belief that a bid of a given price may win a given auction. The planning algorithm computes a price and a set of compatible auctions, such that by sequentially bidding this price in each of the auctions, the agent can obtain the item with the desired probability. Experiments show that the approach increases the payoff of their users and the welfare of the market.