Towards Ultra-High Resolution Models of Climate and Weather

  • Authors:
  • Michael Wehner;Leonid Oliker;John Shalf

  • Affiliations:
  • CRD/NERSC, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720;CRD/NERSC, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720,;CRD/NERSC, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720

  • Venue:
  • International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications
  • Year:
  • 2008

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Abstract

We present a speculative extrapolation of the performance aspects of an atmospheric general circulation model to ultra-high resolution and describe alternative technological paths to realize integration of such a model in the relatively near future. Due to a superlinear scaling of the computational burden dictated by stability criterion, the solution of the equations of motion dominate the calculation at ultra-high resolutions. From this extrapolation, it is estimated that a credible kilometer scale atmospheric model would require at least a sustained ten petaflop computer to provide scientifically useful climate simulations. Our design study portends an alternate strategy for practical power-efficient implementations of petaflop scale systems. Embedded processor technology could be exploited to tailor a custom machine designed to ultra-high climate model specifications at relatively affordable cost and power considerations. The major conceptual changes required by a kilometer scale climate model are certain to be difficult to implement. Although the hardware, software, and algorithms are all equally critical in conducting ultra-high climate resolution studies, it is likely that the necessary petaflop computing technology will be available in advance of a credible kilometer scale climate model