An efficient algorithm for finding the M most probable configurationsin probabilistic expert systems

  • Authors:
  • D. Nilsson

  • Affiliations:
  • Aalborg University, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Institute for Electronic Systems, Fredrik Bajers Vej 7 E, 9220 Aalborg Øst, Denmark nilsson@iesd.auc.dk

  • Venue:
  • Statistics and Computing
  • Year:
  • 1998

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Abstract

A probabilistic expert system provides a graphical representation of a joint probability distribution which enables local computations of probabilities. Dawid (1992) provided a ’flow- propagation‘ algorithm for finding the most probable configuration of the joint distribution in such a system. This paper analyses that algorithm in detail, and shows how it can be combined with a clever partitioning scheme to formulate an efficient method for finding the M most probable configurations. The algorithm is a divide and conquer technique, that iteratively identifies the M most probable configurations.