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Based on a set of measurements done on the 512-node 500MHz prototype and early results on a 2048 node 700MHz BlueGene/L machine at IBM Watson, we present a performance and scalability analysis of the architecture from low-level characteristics to large-scale applications. In addition, we present predictions using our models for the performance of two representative applications from the ASC虏 workload on the full BlueGene/L configuration of 64K nodes. We have compared the measured values for several of the benchmarks in our suite against the predicted numbers from our performance models. In general, the error bars were relatively low. A comparison between the performance of BlueGene/L and the ASCI Q, the largest supercomputer in the US, is presented, also based on our predictive performance models.