The stage hypothesis and the s-curve: some contradictory evidence

Authors:
Henry C. Lucas, Jr.;Jimmy A. Sutton
Affiliations:
New York Univ., New York, NY;IBM Research Lab, San Jose, CA
Venue:
Communications of the ACM
Year:
1977

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Abstract

This paper presents the results of a study testing the s-shaped budget curve of Nolan's stage model of computer development in an organization. Research on the data processing budgets of California counties fails to support the s-shaped curve or the use of budgets as a basis for a stage model. However, the results do not invalidate the concept of a stage model. The analysis suggest an alternative model of budget growth and a separation between models of budgeting growth and growth stages in the development of the computer resource.